It’s Game Week. Ask, and ye shall receive.
“There is only one God, and his name is Death Odds. And there is only one thing we say to Death Odds: ‘Today!’”
It is difficult to fathom that our journey together, at least as far as the original GoT is concerned, is almost over. Would you believe me if I told you that a death or two in the final six episodes is probable?
Welcome to the Official Death Odds for the final season of Game of Thrones: Often imitated. Never duplicated. Accept no imitations.
Here is where we break down the numbers and this time, a man has included actual betting lines on both who is likely to die first and odds of death prior to the final whistle, coupled with horribly misguided Oz conjecture. This is also the post where we encourage dissenting opinion. So, let’s blow it up Cersei…
Disclaimer #1: I remain Unsullied by oath, and this area is a spoiler-free zone. All conjecture is purely based on uneducated, show-viewing only guesstimates, so take them for what they are worth. If you or yours are in possession of insider-trading information on who may or may NOT make it through the final season (or first episode), please keep that information classified.
Disclaimer #2: There have been no scientific studies conducted (that I am aware of) that measure the outcomes of all past Oz-contrived Death Odds, but I can promise you that it’s probably not good. This is merely for entertainment and harmonious argumentative purposes only.
ALSO, and most importantly, the links supplied are merely for citation. We at WotW are not in cahoots with any company that is attempting make money off of ill-advised betting, especially as it relates to a TV show. My advice would be, DON’T.
So here is how we will proceed:
Depending on where you live and how often you partake in gambling activities, understanding odds can be somewhat confusing. So, I’ll simplify it by converting it to a percentage. Such a conversion would look like this (using AeJon Snow as an example):
Who Will Die Outright
AeJon Snow: Odds Fraction: 1/1 = Odds Decimal: 2 = American figure: +100 = implied probability of death: 50.0%.
We will eliminate the “odds decimal” and the “American figure” as they were only shown as variant measurement of betting odds and are not needed in the conversion process anyway.
For those who remain incognizant as it pertains to betting, we’ll go with percentages for this important (sarcasm), non-peer reviewed study of fictional character fatality probabilities.
The IPOD is the “implied probability of death” at any point during Season 8 which means, yeah… your favorite character possibly won’t be living happily ever after working at the Westerosi Pig Shit Farm when all is said and done. Those odds are offered from Betvictor.
The FTP (First to Perish in S8) odds were gathered up from Betonline. Of course, this is where you offer up your hard-earned cash trying to figure out which major or minor named character a group of writers decided will be the first to bite the dust.
Hmmm… wonder if D&D can bet on this.
Anyway, these lines change (often) as new information becomes available and fluctuate depending on theory, opinion, clues from interviews, probably a leak here and there, and most importantly the amount of money being wagered on any particular character. I am only the messenger of what was out at the time of this publishing. They have probably changed today.
So, here we go. Disagree as you like in the comments. That’s why I write it.
IPOD (Implied Probability of Death): 1/1, 50.0%
FTP (First to Perish in Season 8): 66/1, 1.5%
You know there is going to be a shitload of bloodshed if the Prince that Was Promised to Ygritte is sitting at a 50/50 shot at living. But GoT has taught us that it don’t matter what your name really is, or who your mom was, or how many aunts you’ve slept with. No one is safe.
The story as of late has been largely dedicated to the journeys of both Jon and Dany. Now that those roads have converged, and considering the overall history of this tragic exploit, you have to believe that we will not be subjected to a Disney-esque conclusion; one that would involve Jonaerys skipping into the sunset with their baby Wolfasaurus in tow. So, prepare yourselves now.
Oz Conjecture: He gon’ die.
If Jon were to actually be alive and take the Iron Throne at the end, I have this mental picture of him sitting on it much like Conan the Barbarian was at the end of the embattled film, Conan the Destroyer: alone, miserable, and asking himself what the hell it was all for. Surely, that’s not where we are headed (and stop calling me “Shirley.”)
IPOD: 1/4, 80%
FTP: 50/1, 2%
Dany’s probability of death is relatively high compared to AeJon indicating that the odds makers believe that Jon is a much safer bet on making it through the conflict alive. Her FTP is the lowest with the exception of Jon and tied with Jaime showing that the odds of Dany being killed first in S8 are basically non-existent.
Oz Conjecture: Much to the chagrin of the Dany-Haters, she gon’ live. And so will AeJon II when he is born. Dany will remember the sacrifices Jon made and will shape a world of peace, learning from her past mistakes, and forming a peaceful union among the kingdoms while all of us man-bun lovers will be crying in our coffee Monday morning following the conclusion.
IPOD: 1/40, 97.6%
FTP: 6/1, 14.3%
IPOD: 1/2, 66.7%
FTP: 4/1, 20%
IPOD: No odds
FTP: 9/4, 30.8%
The oddsmakers don’t like the Greyjoy’s chances of survival and frankly neither do I. They don’t necessarily think that Euron will go first, but they are almost positive he will perish before the season runs out, which is probably correct.
Theon’s FTP is getting on up there in comparison with the other players on the list, yet his IPOD is only 66.7% which is not horrible odds considering the game being played and where he is headed.
But tied for the top of the FTP out of every major/minor left in Westeros is Yara. Trying to pry into the heads of odds makers is an act of futility, but we can assume she is tied for highest because (a) she’s currently in captivity, and (b) she hasn’t been shown in the trailer or any season 8 photos as of this post. Still, I ain’t buying it and I don’t know if IPOD is either since she wasn’t even listed.
Oz Conjecture: Euron and Theon: They gon’ die. Yara: She gon’ live.
Theon has an arc to fulfill which is probably going to look something like him sacrificing and vindicating himself for either Yara’s life or one of the Starks after the shit he pulled on them in S2. Euron is a goner but won’t be first considering he is bringing back the Golds and will probably be Cersei’s right-hand man now that Jaime (who doesn’t have a right hand anyway) is gone. Yara will carry on the Greyjoy name and lead the Iron Islands into the future, as it should be.
IPOD: 1/40, 97.6%
FTP: 20/1, 4.8%
IPOD: 1/10, 90.9%
FTP: 50/1, 2%
IPOD: 1/2, 66.7%
FTP: 40/1, 2.4%
Cersei and Jaime are both sporting an IPOD over 90% which probably won’t surprise anyone reading this. I admittedly didn’t think Cersei would make it past Season 7 to be honest, so my conjecture on her is null and void. I’ll just say this… if she is still sitting on the damn throne in seven weeks, then we’ve all been duped. And I wouldn’t put it past the show runners or GRRM.
Jaime has an arc to finish. In S4, Joffrey points out that the Book of Brothers has very little written about Jaime which stands out to me as the most damning evidence that he will have at least one historic feat during the season, although it will likely cost him his life. The Kingslayer will be redeemed, and it will be tragic, and we will cry.
Tyrion is the wild card here. With an IPOD of just under 67%, the odds makers give him a much better chance at survival than his brother or sister. There has been an abundance of speculation about Tyrion possibly betraying Dany which is believable considering that he and Dany didn’t have the best Season 7 together. But how would this transpire now that Jaime will be in the North? Hmmm….
Oz Conjecture: Jaime gon’ die, and however his death occurs is going to push Tyrion over the edge into a betrayal. I think Tyrion lives, but it will be somewhere other than Westeros and lonely by the end of the season. I’d love to see Tyrion live happily ever after, so I hope I’m wrong.
Oh, and Cersei? I abstain.
IPOD: 11/8, 42.1%
FTP: 28/1, 3.4%
IPOD: 5/2, 28.6%
FTP: 33/1, 2.9%
IPOD: 2/1, 33.3%
FTP: 66/1, 1.5%
Considering how low the IPOD’s are on the remaining Stark kiddos, the odds makers believe there is a real shot that all three will somehow survive the Great War.
I respectfully disagree. This is not Full House Stark. This is Thunderdome.
Oz Conjecture: Three Starks enter. Two Starks leave. One of them is going to die. The question is… which one.
Your guess is probably better than mine but if I had to put money on it (which I won’t), it would be Arya.
Sansa’s arc has essentially been a coming-of-age story set in a horrific environment in which she has been forced to learn tough lessons through traumatic experiences. And I don’t think we are finished seeing her progression into the kind of leader she will become. If I’m right about AeJon and Arya, coupled with what I’m about to theorize about Bran, it will be up to Sansa to continue the Stark legacy which I maintain would be a good thing. Don’t misinterpret though… Sansa has never been one of my favorite characters, but I don’t hate her. If you go back and watch her evolution through the seasons with fresh eyes and a clear mind, you will better understand why she is who she is, why she made the mistakes she made, and will realize that her character is still not a finished product. They’ll finish it. She will live.
Bran v.3ER is a study by himself. We could fill up this entire website with theories on what the hell is really going on with him. I’m not going to dive in to what I think it is here (no, he is not the Night King), but I do think he has a purpose beyond the show’s conclusion and will take his rightful place wrapped in some roots under a tree when all is said and done.
By the way, both betting services have Bran as the odds-on favorite to be on the Iron Throne when the show concludes. Wanna wager on that? 4/5, 55.6%; 3/2, 40%
That leaves us with Arya who I don’t ever envision settling down and buying a ranch after the conflict is over. That’s… not her. Arya will either get on a boat to travel the world and eventually head back to Braavos or will die on a suicide mission to kill someone important wearing someone else’s face. Let’s hope for the former.
IPOD: 11/4, 26.7%
FTP: 33/1, 2.9%
IPOD: 11/4, 26.7%
FTP: No odds
If you are a lover and not a fighter and looking for the couple who has the best chance to make it out of the White Walker Apocalypse alive, then look no further. Sam and Gilly both sit at over 73% chance of survival which is the best among characters included in the IPOD odds. If Gilly were to perish, it would likely be a tragic case of collateral damage due to war. Sam may be forced to fight simply due to necessity, but he ain’t dying.
Oz Conjecture: They gon’ live. Sam inherits the Citadel and lives in the library. After all, this whole story is just Sam reading (or writing) a book, right?
IPOD: no odds
FTP: 16/1, 5.9%
IPOD: 4/9, 69.2%
FTP: No Odds
IPOD: 1/5, 83.3%
FTP: 22/1, 4.3%
For those of us weirdos hoping for a Davos/Red Velvet spinoff (I think we came up with the working title, Davos and Mel: Living in Hell), the odds are not horribly against it. However, we do know that a sequel is not reportedly in the works.
I have no reason to suspect that Davos will die other than the fact that he is in Winterfell and everybody there is likely to die. But he has found a way to somehow persevere this long. I like his chances, and I think IPOD does as well.
Velvet and Varys are two different stories that converged at Dragonstone. Varys had his run-ins with other Velvets in Essos, and Mel tells him, “Oh, I will return dear Spider. One last time. I have to die in this strange country, just like you.” So, now she is back, for one last time, assumingly to fulfill…. something.
Oz Conjecture: Davos gon’ live. Red Velvet gon’ die.
If you really want a breakdown on Varys, I highly recommend this from @patman23. His conjecture is much more educated and well-informed.
But if you insist on the “Hot Take” of Oz, then have at it.
As I’ve told you before, Varys is a damn Warlock… he’s just abstained from the blue popsicles for a while. I have very specific reasons why I believe this, none of which probably make much sense. But it’s one of those early-season deals that never really added up to much: Pyat Pree was a freaky, blue kool-aid drinking dude in Qarth that could perform magic but was eventually toasted because he stole some dragons, which apparently make Warlocks more powerful. Varys has always had an affinity for the Targs. I wonder why. Then, there was the little blue ring pop-sucking girl who tried to murder Dany with a gangrene-infected scorpion at the beginning of S3 that never amounted to anything other than the return of Selmy. You have to believe the Warlocks were included for some reason, and Varys is your reason.
IPOD: 4/11, 73.3%
FTP: 12/1, 7.7%
IPOD: No odds
FTP: 7/1, 12.5%
The Brothers Clegane. The Mountain (Dew) was not included in the IPOD which may indicate that all sources expect his demise to be inevitable alongside Cersei. The question will be, how does it happen?
If you take the FTP on both, BV clearly indicates they believe the Mountain will go before the Hound which means they project that the Hound will score more touchdowns than the Mountain during Cleganebowl. This side bet offered by BV reinforces it:
First to perish between the two:
Mountain 2/5, 71.4%
Hound 17/10, 37%
Oz Conjecture: They both gon’ die. The Hound will defeat The Mountain but will have to confront his fear of fire to do it. Later in the season, the Hound will perish protecting someone. My guess would be Sansa.
IPOD: 1/7, 87.5%
FTP: No odds
IPOD: No odds
FTP: 9/4, 30.8%
After the doubters all figured out that Beric and Tormund did not, in fact, slide down the broken wall into certain death (huh?)at the end of S7, there was relief. But the end is coming, at least for one and as bad as I hate to say it, it’s going to be flaming lightsaber man.
Oz Conjecture: Tormund gon’ live. Beric gon’ die. They made a point to reiterate that Beric’s (almost) nine lives were done when Thoros died from frozen bear disease. His next time will likely be his last. I hope I’m wrong on this one too. Dormer has always been one of my favorites.
Tormund survives, but not to make giant babies with Brienne. After Jaime dies, he realizes that she loved another and resolves to opening a baby seal plantation helping reestablish trade and prosperity in the North following the invasion.
IPOD: 1/8, 88.9%
FTP: 18/1, 5.3%
IPOD: 2/1, 33.3%
FTP: 14/1, 6.7%
I’m with IPOD on this one in that Gendry is a good bet to survive if only to help keep the Baratheon bloodline intact. Maybe whoever ends up on the throne naturalizes him? Maybe they don’t. Regardless, Gendry will follow his badass father’s footsteps smashing many with his hammer this season. And in the sequel in 2034, we’ll see fat Gendry say, “bring the breastplate stretcher!!!!”
And then there is “The Man.” Ser Zone appears to be forever trapped in “friend” status thanks to Drogo, then Daario, the brief weird thing with Hizdahr, and now Manbun Targaryen. But that’s not really the point here. And this one may break my heart the worst…
Oz Conjecture: Gendry gon’ live. Jorah gon’ die. But like many others, he will redeem himself to House Mormont and Lyanna and will be remembered favorably in the annals of Westerosi History (and the Friend Zone Hall of Fame).
IPOD: 1/1, 50%
FTP: 14/1, 6.7%
IPOD: 1/6, 85.7%
FTP: No odds
The ladies love Pod, and we still don’t exactly know why. If the Gods (and the writers) have any integrity left, they will allow Pod to live beyond the war and to claim the title of “Best Lover in Westeros.” Just kidding, but not really only because I’d like to see the Pod survive. IPOD doesn’t like his chances.
Logically speaking, you might think that Brienne’s chances of death should be higher than Pod’s. IPOD says, “not so fast.” Brienne is a skilled warrior and Pod has a hard time rabbit-skinning, so there’s that. However, you would think that Brienne will be put in harm’s way far more than Pod throughout the final season. Plus, she may be destined to save one of the Stark children, fulfilling her oath while putting herself at greater risk. Of course, if Winterfell goes down like the Hindenburg, it won’t matter one way or the other.
Oz Conjecture: The both gon’ live. But again, no colossal Tormund/Brienne babies. Tormund will test the waters a few more times. Brienne will kick his ass.
IPOD: 1/2, 66.7%
FTP: 14/1, 6.7%
If you didn’t notice, Jaime left KL after his run-in with the Mad Queen ALONE. Ser Bronn was not with him. Maybe this was done purposefully as a symbolic moment for Jaime and Bronn just had to run and gather up his toothbrush and some personal items. But my concern is that Cersei gets to him before he leaves.
I don’t necessarily think she would kill him, although it would be merited considering their history. Rather, I think she might hire him. Bronn has made it clear that he is a sellsword and that he enjoys money, even admitting to Tyrion that he would kill a baby in its mother’s arms if the price was right. Now that Jaime is gone, it stands to reason that Bronn may be looking for other opportunities rather than going to fight a seemingly unwinnable battle. If that happens, and Bronn ends up near our heroes later, then beware.
Oz Conjecture: He gon’ die. Bronn will try to assassinate either Dany or Jon or both and someone will kill him in the process. Maybe this is Jorah’s moment.
IPOD: 4/11, 73.3%
FTP: No odds
Considering the trailer and the fact that he appears to be on the front line of the shit that goes down at Winterfell, these odds are not near as high as I expected. I’d put him at about 90.
Oz Conjecture: He gon’ die. Sorry wormless Worm fans.
IPOD: No odds
FTP: 20/1, 4.8%
Who the hell knows. The assumption is that if NK lives, that means that the living are all dead and ol’ blue eyes is just sitting on the throne staring at the dead army for eternity. Exhilarating, yes? Then again, maybe that’s why HBO isn’t working on a sequel.
But maybe it’s not that simple. Maybe the Night King has a motive we are unaware of and can be parleyed with. This is where Bran’s journey likely comes to its fruition.
Oz Conjecture: I don’t have a damn clue. But there’s more to it than “Kill the Night King, win the war.” Maybe it does come down to pure simplicity. But it will be a complex path to get there.
No action listed on the following:
Lyanna Mormont: She gon’ live.
Missandei: She gon’ live too.
Hot Pie: He told Arya that he’s a survivor. Never doubt the Pie.
Robin Arryn: If he shows up, he lives.
Qyburn: He dead.
Eddison: He dead.
Meera Reed: Really hope we just get to see her again.
Jaqen: I didn’t know if he was dead or alive when he appeared on the show anyway.
Daario: To be honest, I’d be fine if we never see him again.
Edmure: If Edmure were to reemerge, it would be just to kill him off. GoT has a history. So, he dead too.
Who did I miss?
And what did I get wrong? Better yet, where are the odds makers wrong? Voice your dismay below! I’m more interested in hearing your thoughts anyway.
A man will be back soon for in-season Looking Forward, the in-season weekly schedule, Unsullied recaps and other random frolicsomeness.
Take a deep breath and prepare now, kiddos. The end is beginning, as is the HBO GoT marathon. Catch me on the twitster, and may there always be peace in your realm. -Oz
Hope Aegon survives!
Oz Conjecture: He gon’ die. Bronn will try to assassinate either Dany or Jon or both and someone will kill him in the process. Maybe this is Jorah’s moment.
I think this is entirely possible, but my money would be on either Jaime or Sandor killing Bronn. It would be more dramatic if one of the Lannisters has to do it.
Less likely, but there was also that random scene during the Blackwater with Sandor and Bronn about to square off that never really amounted to anything. I never really understood the point of that scene.
In my opinion, the Starks will all live but I don’t think Arya has to set up a ranch or anything to stay in Westeros. The Pack Survives motto heavily implies they are a family unit and will look after each other. Arya will likely be working side by side with Sansa as her equal, not in ruler ship but in respect. She’ll protect her remaining family and they will do the same for her. She would never leave her family now, especially when she knows the lone wolf dies and that her siblings would never be completely safe.
Me either. But a valid point nonetheless.
Dead: Jon,Dany,Jorah,Cersei, and Jaime
Tyrion turns heel and winds up on the throne.
I would have to put money on Cersei living at 40/1. I don’t think she will, but that’s some serious value there.
*sigh* Yet, someone else who completely misunderstood the “that’s not me” line.
Arya was saying ‘that’s not me’ in relation to being a lady who was just some man’s property. Plus, you know she was 11 years old. But, I forgot, other characters are allowed to change, but not Arya. She must have the EXACT. SAME. MINDSET that she had as she did when she was a child.
If any Stark will die, it will be Jon (he is still a Stark). The other three are safe. I think GRRM (thus D&D) are done killing the official Starks.
I mostly agree on the rest, but I do think that Tyrion will die, which makes me sad. Tywin just went on and on… and on so much about the Lannister dynasty that I think it will be completely demolished into nothing by the series’ end with every Lannister dead and gone.
That was fun, Oz, and I think you’re mostly spot-on. With the possible exception of Bran, I think the Pack will survive…and thrive. After all, GRRM planned to call the final book A Time for Wolves. Also, in his 1993 outline he told his editor ASoI&F was a generational saga with five central characters who’d make it to the end: Dany, Tyrion, and “the three children of Winterfell”: Jon, Arya and Bran. After 26 years, maybe his plans have changed (plot details have), but he often says character endings are still what he envisaged way back in 1991. I do think even Sansa will survive, and Bran in a weirwood. Jon, Arya, and maybe Dany should be fairly safe. Arya also has the Hot Pie endorsement. But Tyrion has been trending very dark and begins to look like a traitor. Oh that one can smile and smile and be a villain. BTW, all of George’s Five to Survive are still alive, and characters he tagged to die in the outline are dead. I think Brienne and Jaime will have a tragic romance, and that Arya and Gendry will have the only untainted, wholesome romance among main characters. I hope someone sings their book love ballad (My Featherbed) on the show.
I swear, if Jorah and Sandor don’t go out like goddamn heroes (retired at 90 years old) I’m gonna burn the mall.
But then, I also think Sandor fighting a mostly dead, power-ups zombie version of what used to be his brother is just damn stupid.
Also, nobody will die saving Sansa. A very real attempt will be made on her life, and she’ll finally use her stabby necklace to put it through their eye. And Arya will be so proud.
The Three-Eyed Raven told Bran in season 6 episode 3 “You won’t be an old man in a tree.” Based on that, I don’t think Bran will live in a Weirwood, though perhaps his spirit will. I really don’t know what to expect from Bran in the last season other than using his greenseer abilities to try and help defeat the NK.
However, if WF falls and the Weirwood tree burns, I wonder what role Bran could still play afterwards. He needs the Weirwood to greensee, doesn’t he? or maybe he doesn’t?
Besides Sansa, I actually think Arya is the Stark with the highest probability of survival. The 50% probability for Jon seems about right to me, but I have no idea what they’re going to do with Bran. I’m starting to suspect that the Lannister lineage will be extinct before all is said and done.
Podrick is a well liked but largely inconsequential side character who appears to be on the front lines, which makes me a little worried that he could be an early casualty. People have been expecting Grey Worm to die since season 5, but he keeps managing to pull through; time will tell if he will be able to do so in the final season. I agree with the general consensus that Sam is the safest character in the show at this point.
Bran is not making it out of this series TV or books, alive. Unless it is as a second life, while warging a dragon. The body of the Three-Eyed Raven will not survive the assault on Winterfell, though in time, it will be revealed his spirit is not really gone. Probably when Dany betrays Jon and finds that one of her dragons is no longer truly hers to command.
Which part of “bittersweet” was unclear to you?
Where on earth does this idea that Bran will end up on the Iron Throne come from? He’s spent absolutely no time in his story involved in politics or anything around ruling. That would be a completely bizarre, out-of-left-field ending if I ever saw one.
On Arya, though, it’s easy to predict that she will die because she’ll be in the thick of battle and a big part of her story has revolved around revenge, so it’s tempting to think she’ll finally meet her match. However, her ending had better be far more interesting than that, because that’s boring and pointless. Arya is a survivor, and she will survive. Her arc has been very dark and tragic, so I do expect her ending will involve some of that darkness.
Most of the others I more-or-less agree with. I don’t think Tyrion dies, so his chances at 66% seem a bit high. Mel and Varys have death written all over them, so they’re a guarantee in my book.
I still think we will get Cleganebowl only it won’t be Sandor killing his brother. I think it will be Arya or Sansa dealing the deadly blow (or fire bomb). I think it’s only fitting if Arya fits into this part of Sanders arc. Sansa less so because the SanSan angle never really took off but I wouldn’t mind a nod to his offer to her back in the beginning. She would have to know he’s an ally now. The only two he ever willingly looked out for, the Stark ladies, have to play a part in his endgame in some way.
So while I would hate to lose him, if he goes out heroic, I would be (somewhat) satisfies.
But wouldn’t it be hilarious if Tyrion kills Bronn?
If Arya dies, I AM going to burn the Mall.
IPOD: 11/8, 42.1%
FTP: 28/1, 3.4%”
Gods are not mocked. This is no joking thing.
D&D know full well that Arya would be one of the most, if not the most, devastating losses they could do, so I do expect them to milk that thoroughly this season to get our heart rate going. Maybe I should have a defibrillator nearby..
Isn’t that literally everyone’s storyline… Dany & Jon are both young adults/teenagers (book) when the story starts, all the remaining Starts were young children… All have suffered, been in horrific environments/situations, and forced to learn tough lessons… and make tough decisions too. Dany, Jon, Arya, Bran, Theon, Sansa, Sam, Gilly, etc… even the adults like Jamie, Tyrion, Cersei, Sandor, etc… that is the point of the story, each has suffered a lot of trauma and had to adapt to survive
You’re not exactly wrong, but Sansa is a character who has grown up learning from many of the main political players in this story, especially Cersei/Littlefinger. In Season 7, she spends much of her time preparing Winterfell for the full brunt of Winter. Sh e has learned how to govern and how to be cunning and play the game of politics in Westeros, more so than most of the characters on the show. Now that her character is nearly fully realized as a leader, it would be a horrible end to her arc to simply have her die.
This is speculation, haven’t read any leaks or anything, i know nothing, but:
I have a theory that, well, there’s very cool – and very cruel – thing that you can do with Arya’s faceless powers: you make the audience think she’s dead, but actually she isn’t, one of the other main characters is dead and Arya is wearing their face.
My top candidate for this is Jamie. Hmm, what could Arya get up to with Jamie’s face on??
I really can’t see D&D being able to resist this opportunity to completely break the internet.
Arya Stark isn’t dead until you see a recognisable Arya Stark body…
I agree with many posters saying the three Starks are likely to survive. I think Bran, Sansa and Arya are likely to make it to the end, but obviously be changed in ways that can never be healed. The Starks took most of the early punishment in this story as far as the great houses went. They’re not doing so badly compared to some who are now all wiped out, but GRRM started his story with them as the lead protagonists and I think he is done torturing them (and us). I reckon the three Stark kids are safe.
I agree with the 50/50 odds for Jon. Some days I am convinced he’s going to make it and then the very next day I’m in pre-mourning. He’s even my favourite character for quite some time now and I really am dreading what is going to become of him in this final season. We’ve already had to watch him die once! Come on, surely it’s someone else’s turn?! Today I’m in a Jon will love mood, so I am going to lean slightly more towards survival. I think the biggest plot armour he has right now is the fact that his identity as the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna has been one of the, if not the, biggest hidden secrets in this story, that has been hinted at from the earliest possible opportunity. And then there is George testing David and Dan before he would agree to let them do the adaptation: Who is Jon Snow’s mother? I feel like with the addition of him being legitimate in the show (who knows of that is coming in the books – I suspect it is) is a big indicator that that is going to come to mean something for Jon and the future of Westeros. GRRM adores his Targs, I don’t feel he has it in him to extinguish them and I actually see Jon as the perfect next level evolution to the Targ dynasty.
I would really hate it if Dany went on to have Jon’s baby while he did the typical hero move of sacrificing himself for the greater good. That would feel hollow to me. I have come to love Dany’s Character more and more as the years have gone on and she is probably my second favourite now after Jon (Tyrion being knocked of his second place spot), but I feel she has more chance of dying. I hope not. Her vision in the house of the undying, where she walked up to the throne, but crucially did not touch it after she reached for it, and instead headed north of the wall to meet Drogo and her son, seems massively important. I thinks I’ve read that they only included that because they loved Jason Momoa so much they wanted an excuse to bring him back, so maybe it means nothing, but I feel her not touching the Thorne is hugely significant. I don’t think Dany will ever rule Westeros (also because she’s spent the last seven seasons saying she will, kinda makes me think she won’t), but I hope she doesn’t die. Maybe Jon and Dany will fly off to another life, a quiet life with just the two (soon three) of them and leave it all behind. I’d actually be happy with that for them.
This is fantastic! I have to admit I have been lurking on this site for a few weeks now trying to get my GoT fix before it starts up again. I throughly enjoy the content 😄
I like your thinking. I’m hoping at least one really unexpected thing happens. Sam, Gilly, Baby Sam and Lyanna Mormont all die; Night King kills Jon and saunters off unscathed; Tyrion, Jon and Dany all die and Cersei and Euron hold the throne; something people really won’t see coming.
It’s head versus heart time, I want all my beloved side kicks like Davos, Pod and Brienne to live long and happy lives but it ain’t going to happen *sobs a bit*. Pleeeeeeeeeeeease let at least one of them survive.
Talking of the chilly ones, do we have any idea how long the White Walkers can live if left to their own devices? If whatever they are after is resolved and they head back North, could they stay there long enough to outlive everyone else in the story, or even forever? Are there any clues in the books? I don’t remember the show covering potential life span? So many questions, even at this late stage…
I know you love her very much, but what about if she d**d in THE most glorious kick ass way possible. Took out all the people you/she hate the most and saved all the ones you/she love? Went down in a way that she would be so proud of herself, she would say it was entirely worth it and she’d do it again in a heartbeat? Could you live with that?
Bronn: “last glass of wine before the war?”
Sandor: (very short nod)
that was the point, i think. Sandor keeps back from trying to murder someone he just doesn’t like. a quality of his character we haven’t seen until then.
later in battle, Bronn saves Sandor. then Sandor falls back behind the walls. he’s thirsty, and he doesn’t want fooking water or milk. he wants wine. he wants the pre-war drinking back, as this one pre-war drinking was him getting along with a person he would have liked to kill.
pretty nice forecast of the changes he’d go through, so i think that scene wasn’t a complete waste of anything.
oh, and about Sandor or Jorah vs Bronn: my bets are on Bronn. he’s faster.
The problem I have with that is it feels dishonest to her story. Sure, it can be thrilling and bittersweet to see someone die a glorious, heroic death, but that doesn’t fit Arya. The core of Arya’s arc has always been death and identity, with the latter being particularly important (and when I say death, I mean she as the agent of death). She doesn’t fit the bill of a sacrificial hero. That’s Jon, or Beric, or Sandor. Some might say Dany, but I’m a little less convinced of that. In any case, it feels too much like they kill her off to see the internet break into pieces.
Also, Arya is GRRM’s second favourite character. Though I’m not saying he wouldn’t kill off his own favourites (if anyone would, it’s George..), he does relish in complex, interesting characters, so there’s no way she would get such a simple ending in the books. He’s more clever than that, and D&D had better make good on that or I will rain fire down on HBO! 🙂
This is an interesting question! I look forward to the answer.
Arya exiting in this way makes sense to the story. She was trained to kill for a reason – the question is what happens after she has served this purpose.
I struggle to see how a shape-shifter can live a normal life after post-war Westeros settles. How does one just keep a bag of faces in their closet?
It would make sense if she went back to the House of B&W or if she lost her magic skills in some way. This may be the path taken to find some resolution in which she does not die.
This is what I’m saying. Those bastards! 🙂 If they do a thing where they leave an episode on a cliffhanger making us think Arya might be dead, it’s going to feel longer and be more agonizing than the year we had to wait to find out if Jon was coming back or not..
I think Arya will wind up finding her humanity again and snap out of her vengeful assassin phase. She’ll ride off into the sunset and explore lands unknown. Or she won’t snap out of it and her quest for vengeance will be the death of her.
I think Sansa going down in a completely selfless act to help protect the pack would be an interesting end to her character, considering she started out as a completely head-in-the-clouds child who was mostly interested in day dreaming about marrying a prince and attending tournaments. Self involved to selfless.
I think Arya ending up as the lady of Winterfell would be an interesting turn for her character. She’d obviously not be a lady in the way that she imagined and hated the idea of as a child, but as a strong and skilled leader who does what needs to be done without hesitation. Her training as a toughie will serve her well in the post NK apocalypse in leading the north.
Even if Jamie, Cersei and Tyrion all die, there are other Lannisters around (didn’t King Robert talk about finding a Lannister everywhere he turned or something like that?), so House Lannister isn’t likely to be erased. Also, I really want Jamie + Brienne to happen, so if House Lannister is going to continue anyway, my personal hope is that Jaime would be the one to lead it. He’s been the worst of House Lannister, hopefully he can lead it in a new direction and be the best of it.
Re Jamie + Brienne…from very early on Brienne’s lack of luck in love has been part of her character (the story of the ball that her father threw for her where she was mocked by most of the attendees until Renly spoke up/acted), to the point where it seems to have motivated her to become the bad-ass woman we see her as an adult. Given that she has been such a success at becoming a warrior and has been so honorable in her actions, I’d love to see her character be able to fully address/resolve these wounds of her youth, which she seems to still carry. That could be through finding love with someone, or that she has somehow truly freed herself of those hurts in some other way. I’d be happy with either outcome, but still, I’m pulling for Braime… bitterweet means we get the bitter with some sweet 🙂
I always wondered what this vision in the house of the undying actually meant, ie, whether it really was a prophecy. I mean, at that stage, the Undying want to convince her to stay in Qarth to use her dragons as some magic-magnifier. So maybe the visions are more like “temptations” — one to keep mourning her past dreams of love and family, the other one to abandon her future dreams ie a quest she doesn’t even know whether she actually wants or will succeed in. Visions created to convince her to stay in Qarth. In the end, she chooses to say “Fuck you, fuck the visions: I’m growing up, I won’t mourn forever and I will pursue my quest whatever the outcome, because, well, that’s who I am”. Dracarys.
But I just feel in tune with everything else in your post, and I’d like her to renounce the throne in the end, too (as Daario said somewhere, she’s a conquerer, not a ruler. Though Daario is almost always wrong !). As for Jon, I also think (51% of the time), it would be narratively logical (in the books & even more clearly in the show), and not “fanservice”, that he would not die. One of the threads of the whole story, I think, is about how children can be faithful to their fathers/parents in their own way, while avoiding their mistakes (eg: to which point should they put family first, should everyone stick to vengeance – letting go of family vengeance may be a wheel-breaking element of season 8, and Arya at the crossroads in season 7 may foreshadow it -, how can they concile honour & survival, etc.). Jon is (ironically) the Stark that looks closest to Ned, that seems important to me (as is his dialogue with Theon in S7): it puts this question of “legacy” partly outside the light of sheer blood, and this also contributes to my feeling Jon will live (finding a way to be honorable, and yet not dead, whereas Rob was not honorable since he broke a promise and dead). And, yes, Jon being the sacrifice-kind of person, his own growing up may be to avoid “the typical hero move of sacrificing himself for the greater good”.
I’m sure lots of people have thoughts on this, but as Ten Bears in particular has been such a passionate advocate for…er…is it ANSWAP? (can never quite remember) I asked him….
The characters I am really emotionally invested in are the normal, vulnerable ones who could easily inhabit the same universe as me, albeit about 500 or so years ago. They don’t have any super powers or really unusual skills to protect them, they are just normal folk in extreme circumstances.
But I just don’t feel the same way at all about the ones who are more like the inhabitants of a fantasy world I can’t suspend disbelief for. I know lots of people are the opposite and love Arya, particularly, because she is so unlike most young female characters, but as she grew from a largely powerless child into a face swapping assassin I went from grave concern to total indifference.
I can’t imagine death being a good ending for any of my faves; at best it would end their suffering, so I’m intrigued how people feel about characters for whom it might actually be a glorious thing to aspire to, as it’s so far outside how I feel about anyone in the show. (Should point out I do have a soft spot for Houndie, but he is a warrior who, I think, actually really enjoys fighting. Given the choice I can imagine going down in a blaze of glory would appeal to him.)
The ending could be
Cersei kills Sansa, Ayra chokes Cersei unconscious and Sandor Celgane decapites Cersei. Arya is the younger more beautiful that takes Cersei down.
Night King Tyrion raises Sansa from the the dead and says … “Welcome Home my Queen” Tyrion is the new Night King and Sansa is the new Lord of Light.
I really wish they had done Sansa (and us) the service of not still being under Littlefinger’s influence most of Season 7. When that came out after the fact (and that they’d ommited her seeking out Bran’s advice as well), I was disappointed. While I appreciate her “I’m a slow learner, but I do learn” quip, I would have preferred believing that she was quietly playing him after everything that had happened previously, and the whole “Only a fool would trust LF” bit.
Welcome from out of the shadows! Your user name actually made me laugh out loud. 😆
Agreed. Sansa says at the end of season 6, “only a fool would trust Littlefinger”, yet she goes on being manipulated by him for another season. It was frustrating to see and it didn’t make any sense. I could see it happening more so if Sansa truly loved Littlefinger, but she rebuffed him multiple times. I understand that LF helped win the BOTB, so it wouldn’t have been wise to tell him to fuck off, but did she really need to keep him so close to her inner circle? Like wtf are you doing?
Apparently Sansa was the only person in the entirety of Winterfell who knew how to make armor properly, yet she was fooled by Littlefinger again and again. The whole thing was just a confusing mess.
I still think of the GOT as two interlocking stories and teams of characters: Magic and Regular. Both magics and regulars will fight together at various points.
The regular ones that are most likely to survive for the future: Jaime, Tyrion, Sansa, Brienne, Davos. If alive, one of Jaime, Tyrion or Sansa will be the new leader – listed in order of likelihood. The regulars that will battle these abovementioned and lose that battle are: Cersei, Euron, Harry. Will they all be dead? Maybe.
The magic ones are in it mainly to battle NK and the AOTD: Daenerys, Jon, Bran and Arya. Even if major magics, Daenerys and Jon, are not dead in the battle AOTD (WF&KL), they will still exit the story as their purpose is exhausted. Bran and Arya’s milder magic state will have to be resolved in some way and how that happens can include dying. They may be saved to give Sansa some family besides ex Tyrion.
This is my view of the survival paths.
Unrelated, but Nik wearing an unfortunate outfit on the Ellen show, talking about his UN trip to Rwanda, and a bit about GoT.
hahhahha, unfortunate outfit!!!
They screwed it all up for the “How do you answer these charges… Lord Baelish” moment, which they clearly thought would be a really satisfying twist.
I have no doubt some viewers did “squeee!!!” at the time, but the whole dynamic was so muddled and the details of who knew what and when so unclear, that it ultimately leaves a bad taste in the mouth. Even a cursory reflection on how things played out raises questions. That’s not the case with good storytelling.
They should’ve had Sansa and Arya have their moment of conflict over the letter and Sansa’s supposedly questionable loyalty to Jon / the family, with a genuine sense that they were airing their grievances and it looking as if Littlefinger’s plans were working…
…and then revealed that despite their differences they were still working together.
I think the viewers seeing the Stark sisters working together to bring down Littlefinger would’ve ultimately been far more satisfying for the viewers than a less coherent “surprise, mother f ** ker” moment.
And if they’d done it properly it needn’t have been any less dramatic. For example, they could’ve hired back that actress who played Arya’s servant girl disguise in the Season 6 finale and then, say, after Littlefinger had seemingly convinced Sansa to send Brienne away had a servant enter the room, then after Littlefinger leaves reveal her face and have the sisters dramatically acknowledge each other and give Littlefinger a death glare as he walks away.
That could’ve been the satisfying twist moment.
Then play out the remainder of the storyline, but with the Stark sisters in the ascendancy and the satisfaction deriving from seeing Littlefinger get played for once.
That’s just an example of how it could’ve gone differently. But the way things played out, they didn’t use Arya’s powers to their advantage; they ignored Bran’s until the last minute, which would’ve made more sense if the sisters had been playing Littlefinger all along; and they made Sansa far less astute than she should’ve been by that stage.
It’s a shame. And it’s one of the primary reasons I didn’t enjoy Season 7 as much as previous seasons. Something just felt off.
Last I checked, this is an open discussion forum. Everyone is free to add in their 2 cents if they have something to add, so any suggestion that you’re not interested in someone’s contribution to one of your posts is rude to say the least.
Ramsay's 20th Good Man,
I agree – it was definitely one of the more frustrating storylines for me, for sure.
Hi Enharmony. I’m really sorry my post came across that way, that wasn’t my intention at all. It was a poor choice of words on my part if it reads like I meant I was only interested in Ten Bears’ opinion.
What I was trying to say was: I wonder how a massive fan of someone like Arya would feel if she went down like a boss, I know TB loves her, I’ll ask him. Then other people replied and what I meant was I’m interested in everyone’s ideas, so feel free to join in. Sorry I failed so hard to get that across you got the opposite impression. Can I give you a virtual apology let’s be friends hug? 🤗
Great article – I fully agree Dany is more likely to die than Jon but either or both could go. I don’t disagree with too much of your speculation either and did like the Bran as ruler idea and Night King being pacified rather than killed idea.
Below is my pure speculation.
Sansa – wardness of the north for sure.
Gendry – I feel he will get legitimised.
At risk but I’d like to think make it:
Probably going to die:
Definitely going to die:
Candidates for first to perish:
Yara – given her situation this is the most likely to me and only one I think can logically happen in the premiere.
Honestly I don’t get this Tyrion on a dark path line, he may well turn against Dany but it will be with honest and good intent. In a similar way to Jamie killing the mad king I would say. Of the two I’d say Dany is the more darker character than Tyrion.
The whole idea of Bran living in a tree I think has also past, he may well end up ruling in a capacity where he’d be far more useful.
It’s all good! Glad it was just a little misunderstanding. I’d also be curious to hear what TB would think of that ending, but I’m pretty sure I know the answer. 🙂
I don’t show it in the same way that Ten Bears does, but if anyone can rival him for their love of Arya, it would be me. She’s by far the most empathetic character in the story. The trauma she’s suffered mixed with her strength and vulnerability, wits and resilience, compassion and darkness, is just part of what makes her the best character. So the thought of her not making it out of this alive (heroic sacrifice or not) makes me sick to my stomach, and I think her amazing arc deserves better. That’s this ASNAWP fan’s opinion. 🙂
It comes from Daenerys fanboys/girls preemptively looking for someone to blame for the possibility that she might not end up on the throne after all.
They’re already annoyed that Tyrion stopped Daenerys swooping in and simply dracarys’ing everything in Season 7, so with the possibility that all their headcanon might not be fulfilled looming dangerously large on the horizon the next step is to suggest that Tyrion is turning “dark” and has perhaps been working against Daenerys all along.
There’s practically zero evidence in-show for such theories, but they’re determined to find a means to preemptively absolve Daenerys of any responsibility for anything negative that may befall her in the final season.
I could perfectly reasonably see Tyrion betraying or turning on Daenerys but, as things stand, I’d say any evidence for it points toward it being for legitimate reasons.
We’ve already seen him question Dany’s plans for the future of Westeros and be ruthlessly dismissed. We’ve seen him agonising over the horrific aftermath of her battle with Jaime’s forces. We’ve seen him and Varys contemplating how to avoid Dany emulating her father following the execution of the Tarlys . I believe the scripts said, “But watching her isn’t any easier. It forces him to reckon with the possibility that Daenerys Targaryen, their last, best hope, is also her father’s daughter…. Dany walks away, leaving Tyrion to wrestle with the implications of what he has seen”.
There’s plenty of ways Tyrion’s story could twist and turn in this final season, particularly in relation to Daenerys. But some of those fearful that they might have been wrong about Daenerys’ fate are eagerly seeking someone to pin the blame on. Some of them will even drag Sansa into these theories about Tyrion’s dastardly turn to the dark side, which speaks volumes.
This is the part that confused me in season 7. Varys and Tyrion both see Dany, The Mother of Dragons, as the last, best hope for Westeros, but they freak out anytime Dany uses her dragons or wants to use her dragons. I mean, how can someone say that the Mother of Dragons is the last best hope for Westeros, but then not want her to use them? It doesn’t make any sense. If they are so fearful of dragons and what they are capable of then why are they supporting her claim at all? She should be the last person that they should be supporting if they don’t want her to use her dragons, but here we are.
Also, I don’t see why Tyrion and Varys should’ve freaked out at all about Dany burning the Tarly’s. They want Dany to conquer Westeros. Did they think it would happen without bloodshed? If so, they’ve got to be the two most naive people in Westeros, which would be a strange regression of their characters. Hell, Tyrion killed a bunch of Baratheon soldiers with wildfire during the Blackwater. Should we be calling Tyrion the mad imp now because he burned people alive? Don’t forget the Mad King used wildfire, not dragons, so it’s actually more appropriate to associate wildfire with the Mad King than dragons.
Dany fought the Tarly’s and won fair and square. She gave Randyl a choice to follow her or die. He chose to die. His son chose to die with his father when he didn’t have to. Personally, I would’ve taken Tyrion’s advice and put them in a cell to think about it for a while, but Dany didn’t do anything here that should qualify as being “mad”. She didn’t get any pleasure out of it. I feel like most of characters in the show would be seen as “in the right” by killing the Tarlys, but Dany is somehow seen as “mad” because her father was mad.
I have no idea how this will all play out in the end. Dany could have the temper tantrum of all temper tantrums and become heel in the end because she isn’t the rightful heir or maybe she won’t. I just don’t think any comparisons to her and her father are fair at all. They are not even close to the same. At least, not yet.
Yay virtual friends, I am pleased we’ve sorted this out! Unlike many of GRRM’s creations I do my best to get on with people and would never upset them on purpose.
I think your girl has good odds of making it, she has certainly survived against them! If they were going to kill off someone simply because people think they have plot armour, there are a number of characters in front of her in that queue I reckon, so hope you get to toast her survival. This sort of thing is the reason that I personally lap up all the spoilers, so I’m emotionally prepared for something I don’t want to face and know when to hide behind/cry into the cats.
Oz! It’s been so long! Way too few Looking Forwards.
“The Mad Imp.” I like it!
Wouldn’t it be something if Dany incinerates half a million people – and everyone blames “the Mad Imp” for it?
Arya not making it out alive would Dexterize the entire 73 episodes: they’d all be ruined.
Well, in season 2 they blamed Tyrion for Joffrey. Something about a Demon Monkey.
Tyrion Lannister : [to Cersei] I will hurt you for this. A day will come when you think you are safe and happy, and your joy will turn to ashes in your mouth. And you will know the debt is paid.
What’s with all of the chatter about ASNAWP’s chances of death!? Anything that’s above .05% chance she’ll die is ridiculous!! That .05% is reserved for the possibility that her body dies, but her conscious would be warged/transferred to Nymeria. 😉
Yes I am with you 100%. I saw an article on twitter outlining the theory that Dany is the big bad of the story. Whilst this theory had bounced around for a few seasons now some of the responses were shocking (including by known Watchers contributors) that there was zero set-up for this and it’s only banded about because she’s a powerful woman!!
For me there is zero set-up evidence of Tyrion turning “bad” but there is plenty of foreshadowing that Dany treds a dangerous line and even with some of the teases coming from Emilia it’s clearly not something we can rule out comprehensively.
I’m confused as to the assumption that if Robin Arryn shows up he definitely lives. I am expecting him to be in it and that he will be thrown through the moon door. My guess is that the Golden Company is going to start taking control of Westeros while the North is distracted. And the Vale has been left undermanned with its army up north. This would be the first time it was taken in forever.
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