Editor’s Note: Earlier this year, he shared with us his unique Scientific Wild-Ass Guess (aka SWAG) on the possible publication date of The Winds of Winter. Now he returns to Watchers on the Wall to invite us to take part in an interesting ASOIAF fandom project. Please welcome an old friend of the site, BryndenBFish! – Sue the Fury
Hello, Watchers on the Wall! Long time, no see. Missed you all. How’s 2015 going? 2016 (and winter) is coming. We all hope for the Son of Kong (that’s The Winds of Winter to those uninitiated in GRRM-speak) and eagerly anticipate the return of Game of Thrones, but in the meantime, we have theories to keep us sated. One of the things I did in 2014 was to determine the popularity of certain theories among 3 separate fandoms (the ASOIAF subreddit, Westeros.org & ASOIAF University). I’d like to do that again this year, but I’m expanding.
This year, I am doing a 5-site cross survey of the A Song of Ice and Fire fandom surveying the following fandoms:
My intent in polling these various fandoms is to find congruence and disparity among the many A Song of Ice and Fire/Game of Thrones fandoms. The data will then be analyzed to look at trends, variance and congruence on the various fan-theories on A Song of Ice and Fire. But in my haste to create polls and posts, I neglected one big fandom — you all! Sue the Fury was kind enough to invite me to post a survey specific to Watchers on the Wall readers over to you all.
A word of warning: This survey is intended for those who have read all 5 published books in George R.R. Martin’s A Song of Ice and Fire series as well as the Dunk and Egg novellas, the Princess and the Queen and The Rogue Prince, The World of Ice and Fire and finally The Winds of Winter sample chapters. If you’re not comfortable with this, no harm, no foul if you choose not to participate in the survey. However, if you’re comfortable with these parameters, then this survey’s for you. For that matter, none of the questions presented are mandatory – meaning you can skip questions if you’re completely unfamiliar with the theory.
If you want to know more about the theories presented in the survey or see ideas that you’d like to be refreshed on, I’ve created several theory resources to provide information and fan-defenses of the theories on Reddit:
For your enjoyment- last year’s results:
This will be the first of two surveys coming your way. I split up the survey as the number of theories I was trying to put together was rather daunting, and I figured that I (and hopefully by extension: you) enjoy a smaller survey split by topic.
All good? Alright, here’s your survey, Watchers on the Wall! Tell me what you think!
BryndenBFish is the creator of the Wars and Politics of Ice and Fire Blog a blog and podcast dedicated to political and military analysis of A Song of Ice and Fire. He can be found at twitter as @BryndenBFish.
Hodor! (Did I do that right?) Hi everyone! Thanks for participating and thanks to Sue and the fine folks here for allowing this post on WoTW. I’ll have another survey coming your way next week. Results will be published in early 2016. Can’t wait to see what you all think.
Cheers!
Jeff (BryndenBFish)
HODOR
Gotta confess that I’m a bit rusty on my ASOIAF. I saw some of the names and went…”what?”. I sorta think the results of some other questions (such as, “who are Jon’s parents?”) will be predictable, but it was fun nonetheless 🙂 Thanks.
There are truly some ridiculus theories some of which I never heard of.
I particularly distrust any secret identity theory that one character is another in disguise or a faceless man.
There are truly some ridiculous theories some of which I never heard of.
I particularly distrust any secret identity theory that one character is another in disguise or a faceless man.
I have completed it but some of those theories have been spoiled by the show (at least from S6 filming) and some are outright bizarre!!
That was fun! Missandei as a faceless man? Ha 🙂
Just for reference, there links to resources in the OP to get re-familiarized with some of the theories. (I know I had to!)
For me the most ridiculous one so far is the theory about Tyrion (or the three siblings altogether) being the secret son of Aerys. Like, come on.
Thank you! 😀
Loved reading through all the theories – great fun!!
First time I saw Mycella referenced for spilling to Doran, sorta of fits for her age group, I went with it.
If the Lannister twins are Targ bastards of Mad Aerys then Jaime and Tyrion would have both killed their fathers. Then if Jaime is Cersei’s valonqar, Dany would truly be the younger version of Cersei. Fun! Plus, the total Targ egotistical madness apparent in TP&tQ would continue with much chaotic splendor. 🙂
I mostly agree with some of the others about not trusting possible “hidden identities.” But I DO think there will be at least a couple of surprises along those lines before GRRM is thru with us – it’s just not a plot feature he’s likely to overdo.
I agreed with most of the “biggest” theories (R+L=J, etc.) BUT I also expect that good ole George has been making a few of these almost TOO obvious, and in the end we’ll find out that many of us went for the red herring at least once or twice.
Having a hard time waiting for a book 6 announcement!!! Please let it come before season 6. Please. 🙂
Some theories make me crack up laughing, but hey, George has come up with some crazy shit before so you never know.
Hodor.
Filled it up. What was that about arbor gold and sapphires? Who came up with all this. Also the first time I read about the Theon Durden or the Missendei theory.
Some of these are quite out there. Honestly, I’m rather conservative on conspiracy theories… because that is what most of these are. Those fans who are highly devoted and spend a lot of time thinking about these things tend to loop the loop, overcomplicating their interpretations of the source material because the original reading doesn’t really do it for them anymore. I mean, sure, there are a few that are bound to be true: Robert Strong is Gregor Clegane, the Gravedigger is Sandor Clegane, Alleras is Sarella, Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna, there are a few political conspiracies going around… to a rational extent (a coheseive and unified Northern conspiracy, though?), Jaime is probably Cersei’s Valonqar (yes, it is obvious to us, who have thought about this a lot —it’s not obvious to Cersei and it makes narrative sense, and that’s what matters), Balon was killed by a Faceless Man, Lyanna might have been the mysterious Knight of the Laughing Tree, and the Maesters are conspiring against magic (Archmaester Marwyin explicitly revealed this to Sam, after all).
However, I suspect pretty much everything else may turn out to be fans deluding themselves while trying to find something else —something new— in the old books they already read half a hundred times while they are waiting for the next installment. Only they will be dissappointed when a hundred characters aren’t secretly someone else —when Melisandre, Jaqen, Mance, Qhorin, Missandei, Daario, Varys and all the others turn out to be exactly who they appear to be; when it turns out that half the characters aren’t secret Targaryens; that the High Sparrow isn’t bloody Howland Reed (I mean, WTF?), that Coldhands was just a random guy in the Night’s Watch hundreds of years ago; and that Quaithe isn’t Dany from the future but just a purposefully and appropriately mysterious shadowy character.
The only stuff I’m truly on the fence about is whether the Hooded Man is really supposed to be a mystery, someone of importance, or if he’s just some guy; and whether there is more to young Aegon than meets the eye —the Blackfyre theory is widely-believed and assumed to be true by many, I know, but I sort of want it to be untrue. Introducing such a new powerful contender for the throne in the fifth book of a seven book series is already way too late —and now it turns out there’s even more to it than that? God I hope not.
Tyrion better be Tywin’s son otherwise it ruins one of the best relationships in the entire series, both show and book.
Sadly the theory has a strong case that’s hard to dimiss easily, but Tywin’s sister’s talk to Jaime has me in the Tyrion = Tywin’s son camp.
Lol about half of those theories are crackpot and/or involve incredibly minor characters… Any theory where it’s clear it most readers would go “who?” after the reveal is kind of silly TBH.
Also wahts’ with not including Ned+Ashara = Jon in the who’s jon’s mom question? It’s about as credible as Wylla or rando fisherman’s daughter. Even if no one really believes it in fan-ville it’s still what many casual readers would probably guess.
And wheres’ “who are the three heads”?? That’s the most important question of all! Cmon man! 🙂
Seriously though, thanks for this effort Bfish. I also hang out at w.org, I am quite curious to see the differences in the outcome here vs there. Am I allowed to “vote” in both?
It was difficult to choose in some cases. Great idea! It’s always a pleasure to read another crazy theories!;) All I want for Christmas is a date of publication of A Winds of Winter! Merry Christmas to you all! Love this page!
Whoa.. that was really fun. Kudos!
Although just about everything that said… “is the GRAND…. conspiracy…..” I said no to.
I think I’ve heard about all of them… maybe not some of the word ones about sapphires and arbor gold…
BryndenBFish…welcome back to WotW!!! I love your Twitter feed, keeps me entertained to some degree daily.
I tend to NOT be a conspiracy theorist, so some of these just seemed rather comical to think about actually being the truth. I tend to think that most things/people are exactly what we know/think them to be. I would bet that GRRM would have trouble keeping ALL these conspiracies going at one time. But who knows. We will find out the truth some day.
Good luck with your compilation from all website fans. I hope we do you proud.
And here I thought I’d heard every theory floating around out there . . . Fun survey! Would love to see another in the future- Perhaps one that only deals with knowledge gleaned from the HBO series?
For most of those theories, I agree. But there is very strong evidence that Alleras and Sarella are one and the same. That’s one of my favorite theories, actually. And the evidence for both disguised Clegane brothers is so strong that I almost don’t think of them as theories anymore.
Ginevra,
I’m sure Dragonslayer wasn’t refering to these examples, since they are barely speculative anymore. The Gravedigger may still be considered just a theory —but the show confirmed Ser Robert is Gregor, if there was any doubt; and, for God’s sake, Sarella chose her own name backwards for her uber-secret identity, so that’s about as canon as it gets too. However, all the other secret identity theories are not to be found in the actual text. Whether some of them happen to be right or not (Aegon would be a candidate), the truth is they are over-elaborate conspiracy theories born from a fandom in which each new installment of the story takes half a decade to arrive —which is fine. As far as I am concerned, Martin should take as much time as he wants to write the books and also live his life. Sadly, this had unintended side effects for the fandom, but that’s not his fault.
Absolutely no to most of those, though it’s funny to think there are people who think everyone in the series is someone else in disguise and nothing that was said to happen did actually happen, everyone who is dead is actually alive and affecting every main character directly.
This is just Part I, right? Surely that question will be in Part II?
Yeah. If I can answer that Daeny and not actual three persons. That is something George could do, because we all looked out for three individuals and who it might be.
I find myself saying YES to almost all of these so far! They’re all pretty f***ing amazing. What an interesting world GRRM has created.
I had forgotten about some of those crazy theories I read on other sites hahaha That was fun, though. It seems, however, the show has surpassed any chance of exploring some of those theorized storylines….I really like (but forgot about) the theory that Melisandre is the daughter of Bloodraven and Shiera Seastar–and that Shiera Seastar is actually Quaithe (or, rather that Quaithe is actually Shiera Seastar)
ghost of winterfell,
When I read the book, “Theon Durden” was the only thing that made sense to me for those chapters. I just assumed that’s what was happening, because everything was all too weird and Theon’s a mess.
But the Missandei theory is too crackpot even for me.
Luka Nieto,
Very well said Luka, this is exactly my opinion on most of these ”theories”.
Yeah, me too. If the Hooded Man is supposed to be anyone we know, I’d say it’s Theon himself, veering a bit too much into crazyland. Even hallucinations and a dissociative identity disorder induced by PTSD are more likely than some of those alternatives.
You are correct! Part 2 will be coming your way next week and will deal with plot points, history and future events (to include potential dragonriders!)
BryndenBFish,
I’m most excited about future plot points. I want to know if Season 5 changed the fandom’s perception of Stannis’ chances in the North, Shireen’s future, etc. Last year did you ask any question in regards to the WOTW stuff Season 5 revealed (or invented, according to some)?
I’ve read about these theories so much none of them even seem crazy to me anymore, lol. #superfan (But I do agree/disagree with a lot of them.)
I was surprised not to see Edric Storm as a choice for Valonqar. If you go just by grammar/syntax and logic it points straight to him. Not the most narratively obvious choice of course…but still seems more likely than Myrcella.
Oh well, maybe some like-minded folks will give him strong representation as a write-in. 🙂
Overall great poll, thanks for pulling all this together, BFish!
Whoa everyone, 769 responses so far! This is awesome! Thanks so much!
Luka Nieto,
Wow – I think we agree exactly on.. well, just about everything!
Except I want Cercei and Jamie to be Targs. But I know that’s very wrong of me, and my secret shame…
Luka Nieto,
This is another case when I fully agree with you. No only which of the theories you consider to be valid, but also the way you explained your point of view.
Wait… when I was taking the poll did you warg into me 🙂 ?
From Sansa’s thoughts, when LF asked if she could be his daughter all the time in heart and mind, it’s when she states she is the daughter of Lord Eddard and Lady caitlyn…the Blood of Winterfell, but that’s not what LF wants to hear, lies and Arbor Gold is what he wants.
Sapphires, people are tying in with Jamie I think where it means deceit or trickery I think.
BryndenBFish,
You might want to know that Los Siete Reinos conducted a survey quite similar to yours.
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1MLQhdqbxOEAWQyays8nMj6TXMTF7thJaD4oFBCpEtRE/viewanalytics
I don’t miss any poll, but this one was really fun, even if I have forgotten a lot of minor characters. I wasn’t aware of all the theories and some of them are really crazy, but hey! People are allowed to dream.
I have a theory that something is rotten in the state of the Winterfell crypts, and it isn’t the dead dudes. Well, it is, but the rottenness isn’t coming from the fact that they are dead but rather the opposite. Are they only mostly dead? Can they come back from that? What is the significance of their direwolves, with whom they were buried and not their wives? Are they buried with swords to keep them in their crypts or so they’ll be ready to fight when called? Are the dead kings tied to the fact that there must always be a (living) Stark at Winterfell? Is that because only a Stark in name and blood can raise and command the stone kings the same way that the Others raise and command the wights?
Here are quotes that point to the animation of the Kings (and Lords) of the North, mostly from GoT (Kindle Edition):
Robb and Jon lure Arya, Bran, and Sansa into the crypts to scare the piss out of them, and Robb says:
But is this reference to the walking dead a prophetic one given what happens north of the Wall?
Bran and Rickon share a portentous dream of their father in the Winterfell crypts just before news of Ned’s death reaches Winterfell.
Ned describes a crypts dream, as well.
Half a dozen or so times, George mentions a recurring dream of Jon’s: He’s running through Winterfell, desperately searching for someone but finding no one, not even the ravens. Heading to the crypts, then, he becomes deathly afraid.
The Barrowlands where the First Men are buried (and barrows everywhere in the north) seem portentous, as well, but they might be fodder for the Others.
BryndenBFish,
Ok good! I’m looking forward to going to bat for Dany/Jon/Tyrion = 3 heads!
Geralt of Rivia,
Yah, all-Jon and all-Dany should be options for 3 heads. Also, drogon-rhaegal-viserion.
Everyone is a secret Targaryen or a faceless man, it is known!
Ginevra,
Kudos! It’s a mesmerizing theory and I hope it will be part of TWOW and/ or ADOS.
My favorite theory is this one : Varys is a woman and the mother of Aegon (while Illyrio is the father). Priceless.
Mance is Rhaegar Targayren. Good one.
I have to say some theories are well throught out and really interesting. Ashara Dayne being Jon’s mother is one of my favourites. I love House Dayne and part of me always wishes that she was his mother. I am glad to know other people thought about it too.
Queenofthrones,
Daeny is much more likely than Jon- she even called herself the last dragon. Wears that beautiful necklace. Maybe foreshadowing? In the end she has more connections to dragons than Jon will ever have. I doubt he’ll ever accept that part of him.
Drogon, Viserion and Rhaegal option would literal like three dragons. Might be, but so far more leaning towards Daeny when it comes to prophecies. A lot of things points out to her.
OT: Anyone was lucky enough to watch Star Wars:The Force Awakens? No spoilers please. Just curious how many of you did watch the movie already.
Ser Roger Sterling,
Even the ones about Tyrion, Cersei and Jaime being Targaryen bastards? If so, poor Tywin.
I was under impression that Jaime and Cersie might be his as Aerys bastards, but currently no. Tyrion being a Targaryen bastard is a very popular theory backed by people due to the fact his mother died during childbirth just like Jon’s and Daeny’s. The connection between them and it was common thing during that age.
But in the world George created, one can understand why some people simply don’t believe in coincidences.
Is it bad that I can’t remember half of this characters?
Geralt of Rivia,
I’m one who hoped that some how Ned Dayne and Sansa would meet, he be a good fit for her and it would tie the Starks and Daynes together where it once passed by.
I also think their house history goes back well before Ned and Ashara.
Lady Wolfsbane,
Shy Lady Dragon,
Though I’m happy we agree, it’s not such a surprise. As I said, I’m quite conservative with theories, which means I believe those that most of us already assume are true. I tend to only believe either the theories that are pretty much confirmed in the books themselves, especially when some character inside the fiction has remarked upon the possibility (for example, Robert Strong and the Maester Conspiracy) or those that have direct and obviously planted evidence in the text (such as Alleras and R+L=J).
Grailking,
Yeah I think so too. House Dayne and Stark share a history that might be explained further and goes well beyond Ned, Ashara and Brandon. Ned and Ashara had a thing for each other. Ned and Cat was hardly marriage out of love. Brandon was in her mix too, as it was speculated that Ashara could’ve visited him the Black Cells. Cat was promised to him after all. In the end Ned and Cat marriage was arranged.
Ned and Sansa would be a good fit. Agree.
Luka Nieto,
This, most of them are crackpot are born of too long waits and I think many fans are going to be very disappointed when 95% of their theories will be proven false.
Ginevra,
I took those for basically confirmed. For instance they have actual textual evidence (hey that rhymes). I can mayby see something for Aegon or the hooded man but I’m not as certain for those.
Luka Nieto,
I’m currently rereading the books trying to prove/disprove 5 theories for fun…
Mance wrote the pink letter (my fav Preston Jacobs idea)
Varys is a woman (my fave Ladonna theory)
the Lannister twins are Targs (that one is all over, call it mine)
Robb was a bastard (Brandon’s) (theory by Maester Payne and co.)
Roose is a vampire/white walker (Alt-Shift-X’s best video)
And so far… I’m going to call all 5 wrong. But oh well… while we wait for more books,,,
Anyone seen Preston’s stuff on dragon genetics? I mean, you’ve got to give props to the effort he puts into this stuff…
I had to write one in: “Marwyn’s agent” for Quaithe. I don’t think she’s any of those other people suggested (DEFINITELY not time-traveling Dany!), but she’s not just a random disinterested Shadowbinder either.
I had a blast filling this out and I’m glad to hear another survey is coming next week. Arbor Gold & Sapphires & Identities, oh my!
Well, that wasn’t really the question. It was a question about who she was. She most likely IS just a shadowbinder. Doesn’t mean she’s disinterested!
The Hooded Man question is a little misleading, I think, because it sort of presumes that Theon’s suspicions are true that the Hooded Man and the serial killer at Winterfell are one and the same. Seems fairly apparent to me that the killings were done by Mance/Abel’s spearwives and that the Hooded Man was someone else, there for a different reason. My best guess is Hallis Mollen furtively interring Ned’s bones, as ordered by Cat. I like the HM=HM version because it positions someone to find out what exactly the Mysterious Something in the Winterfell crypts is, and to deliver that revelation to some Stark when the narrative gets to the point where that information is needed.
Most of these theories will likely turn out to be false. Also some of these theories does not actually have much of a meaning in the main plot of the stories. But some of these theories are a lot of fun and you almost wish they were true.
My favorite secret identity theory by far is Qhorin Halfhand as Ser Arthur Dayne. It would just make so much sense. As a truly honorable member of the kingsguard, the only options Arthur Dayne had left to him was to die or to join the Nights Watch.
Jaime is one of the best fighters and he cant fight with his left hand, and yet Qhorin Halfhand mastered it.
It would also be nice if Arthur Dayne did his duty in the end by letting Jon kill him.
I think it would be great if this theory was true, but I dont really think it is true, almost everyone from the ToJ are mostly just dead.
The Dayne’s is a very interesting house, they are at the center of some mysteries and yet there is not much about them in the books. One thing that I think might be true, is that Ashara Dayne’s stillborn child was actually Ned’s child.
I ve never seen the idea about sapphires. I ve seen that there might be a connection between fruit and people dying, like Renly with his peach, and I ve seen that the word “sweet” or sweet smells, are actually often related to decay or something rotten or underhanded going on.
Yes it does seem like the Hooded Man is there as a spy, or on some other secret mission. Most of the deaths are as result of Mance and spearwifes, while it also seems like Big Walder might have killed Little Walder.
I think the Hooded Man might be Hallis Mollen or Harwin, I am leaning towards Harwin.
I had so much fun doing this! Thank you for putting it together. I voted with what I feel or suspect to be true based on some expectations from the narrative lines that developed in the books though obviously nothing quite as explicit as I’d like (see Robert Strong/ The Mountain).
However some I just wish they would be true :D, though they are but conjecture and subjective interpretation (Bloodraven & Shiera Seastar parents to Melisandre)
>>For me the most ridiculous one so far is the theory about Tyrion (or the three siblings altogether) being the secret son of Aerys. Like, come on.
It seems a lot stronger if you read World of Ice and Fire, but I am told that that book is not exactly canon.
In that book there is a lot of talk about the rumors of why Tywin left King’s Landing and resigned the Hand of the King job to go back to Casterly Rock with his wife, given that they were both extremely close long time friends. Most of the rumors center around the fact that Aerys was coveting his wife, and that basically was the root of all the animosity between the two (which lead to Aerys picking Jaime for the Kingsguard and other back and forth dick moves until the fated results at the end of Robert’s Rebellion).
I prefer to think Tywin always suspected Tyrion of being Aerys’ bastard, even though he wasn’t.
Now my question is: how come Jojen Paste was not part of the “Miscellaneous Theories” when it’s one of those that definitely has more support than a lot of these ones that were mentioned.
Also: Frey pie is not a theory, it’s almost written out in plaintext in Dance.
Or LF and the pomegranate, Sansa and the pear.
One of the few theories I do not consider bogus immediately and unresolved (I believe Jon’s parentage to be resolved) is the Hooded man in Winterfell.
Martin wrote that encounter for a specific reason, right? The ghost of Winterfell met the hooded man who was surprised that the turncloak was still alive, thereby revealing that he was not in Winterfell prior to their encounter. Thus, the hooded man probably just arrived.
Also, despite the physical transformation, the hooded man reconigzed Theon straight away.
I do not know who he is, but I guess this individual must play some part in tWoW and specifically in the story of the north/Winterfell/Boltons
Firannion,
The spearwives only admit to killing Yellow Dick.
No AD + HR = M + J? I’m disappointed in you.
Boudica,
Harwin’s with “the-Lady-who-must-not-be-named”.
I don’t think there’s anything fishy going on here, decaying matter does smell sweet, very apparent during autumn rains here.
hodor,
Sweet fruit are used to hide the decaying smell… 🙂
Among the many theories there, I am totally a believer in:
R+L=J (obviously)
The posthumous Clegane identities (obviously the Mountain = Frankengregor is confirmed by the show, at least)
Theon Durden
and EITHER Jaime + Cersei OR Tyrion being a secret Targ
Even though people think the last part is stupid. I will be surprised if neither Tyrion nor the Twins turn out to be Aerys-spawn.
The Lem = Ser Richard Lonmouth theory sounds interesting and plausible, although I guess not critical enough to be included in the show.
Other things like Frey Pies I would argue aren’t even theories, they’re pretty obvious in the text (and hey, it’s another of the many Titus Andronicus references). But I suppose the point is that for every one of these theories, the believers see them as being obvious truths…
loved the poll thanks. the hooded man is HOWLAND.
Exactly this makes me doubt it for some reason. It’s just way too obvious and predictable. George hates that, but there is no alternative at least on the show.
I doubt that. Tyrion and Tywin dynamic would suffer and him being his son woud be ironic. The one he hated the most, but it can go either way.
I totally forgot some of the questions of the survey already. Was there a question about “Where Ashara Dane is now?”
a) Dead
b) She’s Septa Lemore
c) She’s Meera and Jojen’s mum currently hiding at Greywater Watch. <— my fave theory this year. I love this theory so much and wish for it to be true but sadly, it might not be.
I used to think the same as you about this, but the World of Ice and Fire book actually increases the chances of the Lannister kids being Aerys’s, in my opinion. . Page 116 of the book has Aerys inappropriately commenting on Joanna’s anatomy when she brings her 6 year old twins to Kings Landing, and the following year Tyrion is born with a tail, according to gossip (ring a bell from Dany’s child, anyone?), and the Targs had a history of deformed births, although no dwarfism thst I can recall. Aĺso Joanna had the twins a year after leaving KL, and no more kids for six years until another trip to KL…..seems a bit suspect ☺. And we all know how much the Targs enjoy incest, rather like a couple of other blond-haired siblings we know. I also remember reading somewhere that Aerys had a thing for Joanna prior to her marriage. So anyway, I now think theres actually a good chance this theory could be true.
Somewhere I’ve run across a suggestion that Tywin may have known that none of the kids were actually his because he was impotent. That would certainly offer some interesting psychology behind his being such a control freak. But I can’t think whose PoV could corroborate such information.
Firannion,
I think it suggests he’s infertile, rather than impotent. He appeared to be doing the business ok with Shae?. But either way, a blow to his masculinity for someone like him, for sure.
I Dream of Spring,
Was it really that predictable and obvious originally, though?
I never thought of it when I read the books the first time. Then I read it on westeros.org or somewhere during when S1 was airing, it suddenly seemed like the most obvious thing in the world.
It seems obvious in hindsight, but is it a case of the fandom all clicking together because it’s one of those “obvious now you point it out” kind of things?
Either way, do we think GRRM would change it now, just because we all spoiled his big reveal for ourselves?
Back to secret Targannisters, it might be entertaining if the Twins are really Targstards and Tyrion is really a Lannister… Then Jaime and Tyrion will have both killed their respective biological fathers.
I can buy the Tywin-Shoots-Blanks theory too though.
Grailking,
Ah okay, I don’t normally go online to read all these theories, but now that I have started re-reading the books, I will try to keep in mind some of these theories and see if they make sense.
Geralt of Rivia,
It only seems obvious and predictable because people have been debating about this (rlj) for 20 years now, with no answer yet. There must be thousands of threads on this topic so far. It’s natural for people to start coming up with alternate theories, involving double baby swaps and whatnot, secret identities for everyone. But the show has made rlj even more obvious, I think.
Chickenduck,
I think GRRM has said that he will not change his story just because people have guessed some of the hints correctly. Something like since he is the one who put in those clues, so he can’t change the answers now.
And would that mean Lancel is actually Lord of Casterly Rock?
Interesting theory here! 😉
This has renewed my fervour for ASOIAF conspiracy theories!
I definitely err on the side of caution with these theories, but they’re fun to read when a whole load of evidence has been provided too.
I am going to look up the Septa Lemore theories again right now, in fact!
Chickenduck,
Yeah, it’s not obvious at all. Martin has peppered the books with all kinds of hints and clues about this, but they are cleverly hidden and interspersed in multiple books with hundreds of pages between them. I know that I had no clue until I went online. It’s only in hindsight when you piece together all the little things that you can see the truth. Of course, I’m sure there are especially attentive and perceptive readers out there who sussed it out early, but I’m willing to bet they are a minority, and quite a small one at that.
I just read the Bolt-On theory for the first time.
…
Sweet Mother of R’hllor.
That can’t be a thing, right? Right? That’s way nuttier than anything GRRM’s thrown at us so far.
Although the more I think about it…
“R+L=J (obviously)”
is it too obvious that it may not actually be true? lol!
Yes…but it was queried in reverse:
1) Who was Septa Lemore? (multiple choice, including AD)
2) Who is Quaithe? (multiple choice, including AD)
She was included in a few other questions as well…
I can’t wait for the ToJ sequence in S6/TWoW. Perhaps it will answer what role AD played in it? Who else was with Lyanna, if anyone? Did Ser Arthur Dayne know more than presumed?
Hodors Bastard,
I was under the impression that AD’s role is a non-speaking part but I hope we would get some answers.
The ASOIAF fandom is a pathway to many theories some consider to be unnatural. A number of them are surprisingly potent and insightful. Most of them are extremely well-researched. Almost all of them reflect the depth and sincere passion of the fandom, albeit a fandom that’s had a bit too much time between books to let its imagination run wild. A few of them are completely insane.
And then … there’s the Bolt-On theory.
It’s always good for a laugh, at least.
Deesensfan,
It wasn’t that obvious. It’s just that it’s been discussed ad nauseam that it feel like it was obvious. I do think there are a lot of people who would love nothing than for R+L=J not to be true just to spite Jon Snow fans.
Thanks for the poll, it was fun!
I was surprised to find that I had at least heard of all of the theories except one (Arbour Gold). Is that me being an obsessive fan?
The only one I believe 99% is R+L=J because I worked it out by myself on my first, very rushed read (read all 5 books in about 10 days). Only then I came to the interwebs, to find out I wasn’t as clever as I thought and thousands, if not millions, had come to the same conclusion 😀
Yes, and Bowen Marsh is also known as the Old Pomegranate, there is some interesting links with Greek mythology there. Asha also eats a peach with Tristifer at some point.
It becomes a much more interesting prospect when thinking about prophesies such as “A blue flower growing from a chink in a wall of ice, filling the air with such sweetness”.
That could mean that the sweetness implied in the Dany prophesy might actually not be a good thing.
I think that specific Lady might be the one who send Harwin out on some type of mission at Wintrfell.
It is obvious but at the same time it isn’t obvious. It is very obvious when someone points it out in hindsight. But for those readers who dont read about GoT or ASOIAF on internet, it is still mostly an unknown theory.
I myself almost immediately realized that Jon must obviously be Ned sister, Lyanna’s son, simply because Ned is just to honorable. But I originally thought Robert Baratheon was the father.
The first book does have a lot of clues, but when you read about the scenes such as the ToJ scene, you dont really completely understand the concept about Kingsgaurd that well yet. Once you understand the concept and other ideas wthin the story, it becomes much clearer about what happened at the ToJ.
But most of the clues are far and wide apart.
If you really scrutinize the timeline of the events, R+L=J is actually the only option that really works well enough. The only other person who could really be Jon’s mother or who has been put forward as a candidate for Jon’s mother is Ashara Dayne, and she has never been mentioned in the show. The show are obviously completely ignoring her as potential suspect.
The big thing about the timeline that confuses people is that Lyanna was kidnapped or only disappeared about a year AFTER the great tourney at Harrenhal. Therefore the chances of Ashara being Jon’s mother is almost impossible, it is very unlikely that Brandon and Ned had any contact with her after the tourney at Harrnehal.
Ned did not have any contact with her during the time, he was in the Vale, went to Winterfell, got married to Catelyn and started a rebellion, the same basically goes for Robert as well. Brandon was already dead at the time of Jon’s conception. Therefore the only option that actually works is Rheagar and Lyanna.
There are too many secret Targaryen theories. It simply would not work to have one of the Lannister’s as another secret Targaryen. Having Jon is already more then enough, it is actually a bit frustrating that we already have fAegon as well. I can see why he has been excluded from the show. Although it would be amusing to think that none of Tywin’s children was really his own children, but it would just be too repetitious to have more secret Targaryens.
People are looking for more Targaryens because of, the dragon has three heads prophesy. But I am not sure that we will ever see three dragon riders. It has taken Dany five books to finally ride Drogon, it just seems like there might not be enough time for another dragon rider to develop, even Jon. Dany will very likely only land in Westeros in the final book or at the end of the sixth book, there just isn’t enough time. I can see Bran perhaps warging dragon, or perhaps one of the dragons will die before even reaching Westeros, if Victorian or Euron controls one of the dragons with the dragon binding horn then it could happen.
I am personally not a fan of all the secret Targ theories. If any of them are true the books would be lousy with secret Targs and it would undercut R+L IMHO.
Another B5 fan! Always nice to see those.
The problem I have with Tyrion (or the Lannister kids in general) being a secret Targaryen is that all the signs pointing to it are, as far as I know, from outside the novels. I tend to at least assume George would drop hints in the main series rather than hide plot-critical information like that in outside sources.
Brienne being a descendant of Duncan the Tall for instance would be fine IMO since it probably won’t come into play in the end game of the plot, so it’s just an easter egg or fan service to have that secret revealed thanks to outside sources. But theories that posit Tyrion as a dragon rider because Targaryen are a lot more likely to be plot-critical than easter egg. And in fact the reason why they are popular is *because* it would be a major plot point if it was true.
I understand the concern about secret Targs and I prefer to think about the default diverse option as well (family lineages are as assumed), but one can argue (for the sake of argument) that GRRM is quite fascinated, almost too fascinated, by the entire Targ story and may have woven more into this tale than meets the eye. Does GRRM ever not write about the Targs? TP&tQ, The Rogue Prince, D&E, even TWoI&F dedicates the largest section to the Targs and their lore (and an even more dedicated tome is coming: Fire & Blood). Their tales are always front and center in his mind, it seems.
ASoI&F is still awash with Targ relations, even after they were supposedly deposed and destroyed. The Baratheons and Martells and others have substantial Targ blood. BR lingers, Dany is surging, dragons are returning, Aegon/fAegon is attacking, the Golden Company has reawakened, many of the great Targ bastards simply “disappeared”, Jon is full of Targ potential, the Targ-like incestual Lannister twins are alluring, the red priest/red god affectations for the Targs/AA (who is Mel?), etc…..one could argue that this tale is simply about the chaotic time in Westeros (283-301 AC) between Targ rulers. Crackpot?
Also note that all the failed Blackfyre rebellions occurred during Targ rule. Wouldn’t now be the ideal time to stage another Blackfyre Rebellion while the throne is in a state of turmoil? Perhaps not, but the thought persists.
We’ll see, but until some of the basic theories (R+L=J, etc.) and their derivations get confirmed, there is a real possibility that secret Targs are everywhere (just like Baratheon bastards), given what tales GRRM has published already. 🙂
Does anyone think that there may be some type of Sci-Fi twist to the end of this story? I know there was another poster upline who posted a Preston Jacobs video, and although I feel like some of his theories are pretty far out, he does have a point when he talks about GRRM’s other works (Sci-Fi) containing mind-control and genetic manipulations. I don’t necessarily believe that GoT or ASoIaF will have such an ending, but it is interesting to think that the possibility exists.
Shadow Shifter,
Boudica,
thanks for the opinions:)
I guess it is obvious… but not really. I too thought there was something fishy from the beginning because its NED… he is not like that.
And I think its the most talked about theory which leads some to say its obvious.
I know some people (show watchers only) that have never even thought of Jon not being Ned’s son.
I really hope this theory is true! I like it 🙂
I also thought the three heads was three targs.. but you do make some good points.
By the Old Gods and the New, I hope not. That would be nearly as cheesy as ‘and then he woke up and realized that it had all been a bad dream.’
I don’t understand why some people are so against people being secret Targs. Just taking the example of Aegon the 4th (the unworthy) who slept with uncountable women and had just as many bastards, half of the people in Kings Landing might be descended from his bastards. During the Dance of the Dragons when they were trying to find more dragon riders, there were many “dragon seeds” (bastards) on Dragonstone. I’m convinced that Tyrion is Aerys son. I was on the fence for a while on this theory but after reading the main books 3 times, I just saw too much evidence for it. There’s the obvious obsession Aerys had with Joanna and the dates adding up of when she was in Kings Landing and then gave birth to Tyrion within a year of that. He dreams of dragons, which many trueborn Targs do (including Master Aemon). His deformities sound a lot like the deformed babies Targ women gave birth too. No, there is no mention of dwarfs, but I don’t think there’s any mention of the deformed babies living either to be recognized as dwarfs. In season 5 when Dany and Tyrion meet, to me it was like, this a brother and sister talking (even though they don’t know it). Tyrion even references his sister several times while they are talking (to me this was a big hint). I think it would be a huge fun irony if we have all these secret Targs but fAegon, who people think is a real Targ turns out to be a Blackfyre. Although I predict that this will actually never come to light in the books but will just be something the discerning readers “know”.Firannion,
hahaha I know, right? I don’t expect a space ship to hover over that giant wierwood and beam up Bloodraven or anything like that lol. Or Bran wakes up and he’s actually a writer who investigates hauntings, and he wiped out on his surf board and got knocked out and had a crazy dream hahaha
Because there’s a difference between what’s logically possible and what’s narratively and thematically appropriate. Most proponents of the more outlandish theories only look at the first and don’t usually bother with the latter. Take for example Howland Reed as High Septon theory based on some superficial similarities in description. While it is *possible* they are one and the same, there is absolutely no narrative and dramatic payoff to be gained from such an unlikely reveal. Quite the opposite, it would cheapen Martin’s exploration of religion and religious extremism by turning it into yet another grand conspiracy that ultimately has nothing to do with religion.
So, Targaryens. Reason why so many people roll their eyes at secret Targ theories is fundamentally the same as above. It would seriously undermine character arcs and rules of good storytelling if suddenly no one is who we thought they were, but are actually these superspeshul Arians who’ll set everything right.
Mr Fixit,
Just throwing my two cents in about secret Targs: based on my personal assumption that the show writers are loosely moving toward the end game of the written story, there has been no set-up for any of the Lannisters to be anyone else other than actual Lannisters. Additionally, as stated before, there doesn’t appear to be any added value to any of them being a Targ, other than the hope that Tyrion will ride a dragon or be a part of one or all of the prophecies. I know the World Book makes some speculation about Aerys and Tywin’s wife, but in my humble opinion, I think it was used to show what caused the break-up of that bromance, and in the end justified Tywin sacking KL at the end of the Rebellion. I think, too, that Aerys was trying to piss Tywin off and kind of put him in his place when rumors were circulating that Tywin was actually running the Seven Kingdoms–not the king. I think the ‘twincest’ practiced by Jaimie and Cersei is an extreme form of narcissism, not a physiological trait that has been passed down through the Targaryen line. Not only that, if R+L=J turns out to be true, and if the other character in the book (not even a hint or mention in the show) turns out to be a true Targaryen, then there is 2 already. How many secret Targaryens can there be? How many is too many? So then Dany has 3 half-siblings and 2 nephews? It just doesn’t seem likely
Ginger of House Snap,
I guess my reply didn’t include AKladybird, but the reply was aimed more toward that person instead of Mr Fixit. I guess I don’t know how to get both posters in there
There should be a post put on the game of thrones subreddit as well BryndenBFish. I used to spend a lot of time there and about 25% of the subscribers seem to have red the books and they might not visit other boards if they are more casual fans. I do not think there is that many visitors there of season that their own poll results should be necessary but I feel they should be notified. Maybe will post at one point but I am not that good at making links.
It is interesting that Watchers on the Wall and Facebook are included, I assume in these surveys a lot out there theories get less support. I voted on the reddit poll since I these days send most time there and I have gotten pretty used to crazy theories lol.
While I am generally rather conservative predictor I believe in the A+J=T theory (not regarding Jaime and Cersei) despite many really hating it. There is a lot of evidence in the main books as well, not just in woiaf, westeros.org has a thread that has all evidence combined. Of course there is no R+L=J level evidence but no theory has that.
One of my crackpot theories with regards to Sansa is; that she is fulfilling a Hades & Persephone part in since her Direwolf was sacrificed she may sacrifice herself in staying with someone to save the realm, the twist is she would be the Nights Queen and live up North 4 months out of a year officially bringing Winter, and the remainder as she heads South ushers in Spring, Summer, with Fall starting as she treks up North to Land of always Winter.
My idea is based on the premise that the Starks forgot their portion of a pact that ended the last battle for the Dawn.
Luka Nieto,
Yes, think that is exactly what is going on. It’s so very GRRMsque
Grailking,
That is a beautiful theory. Very poignant & a fitting end for her.
How do you see Ayra coming out?
With what is read and the scene with her removing the faces ending with her looking at herself, not too happy for her, either dead or fake dead, she may in the books find Jeyne Pooles body(or someone else ) during Winter and replace Jeynes face with her own as she takes Jeynes the clue that she isn’t truly dead would be no NEEDLE in Jeynes hand.
Or she truly dies.
:>(
Deesensfan,
I never thought of it until I started digging in the internet for more info about Jon´character and accidentally came to R+L=J
grailking,
Yeah, I feel right now her death is probably imminent, but I’m hoping George finds a clever way to turn the tide for her 🙂
Thanks for this poll. I love reading fan theories and considering the source material from all angles, even wacky ones. It makes re-reads lots of fun.
BryndenBFish,
You are very welcome, I enjoyed the poll and I am new here a few weeks now so I have never read anything of yours before but I enjoyed it thank you, I love this website, I can’t get enough thank you Sue the fury and everyone else
Dragonslayer,
The one theory that really jumped out at me as being true (apart from R + L = J) was the Grand Tyrell Conspiracy. Aurane Waters’ part in it seemed to fit in very well. The septa luring Cersei into the cells by giving her the news of Margaery seemed obvious.
I also don’t really buy into the Faceless Men theories.
I think both Daenerys and Jon Snow are both prophesized to be significant in some way, and that Daenerys is the one will destroy Cersei. Jon is probably R’hllor, perhaps in conjunction with Daenerys (as a couple entity).
A side note, but, man: I hate it that “theory” has become a synonym of “hypothesis” or even “wild-ass conjecture.” The word is supposed to be used for general ideas that we think are true (gravity, evolution, etc.), or for basic ways of approaching things (GRRM writes following they theory that the stories should be about internal conflict in protagonists; Bach composed following Baroque theory in which themes were arranged counterpunctually to one another).
Some of these are “hypotheses”: e.g., who are Jon’s parents? That is, they are ideas that follow some theory of writing or human behavior. (Theory generates hypotheses in critical thought, as opposed to generating composition styles in literature, music and other art.) Others are simply conjectures: i.e., the “tin-foil hat” or “pulled it out of my ass” ideas.
And… man, a lot of those ideas had intestinal parasites as neighbors recently!
Imminent, not yet but the last words from Bran could be; we buried Arya next to father today. :>(
My worst case crack pot, GRRM has the remaining Starks be all that stands between the WW and Westeros and either ALL of them die in saving Westros sorry asses or the remaining Starks with Direwolves die leaving only Sansa and or Benjen alive ( I lean on him either dead or dying way up North )but if the Starks are GRRM team (Giants) why kill his team to win a come from behind victory.
Wimsey,
While I agree with you most of the time, you’re off the mark here. Consult any dictionary and you’ll see that “theory” has additional meanings and can be used more loosely.
The “Dayneites” were a powerful internet block 15 years ago! It’s always tough to tell what proportion of the fans they were: but, man, their devotees sure posted a lot….
My reasons go to real theory. GRRM has always said that he’s trying to avoid all of the cliches (tropes) of fantasy and write real literature in a fantasy setting. Having lots of people secretly be descended from an important family and having that be important is a classic Fantasy Trope: thanks to JRR Tolkien, too many fantasy writers think that genes rather than development informs us about characters. (I do not deny that sociobiology is real: but the fantasy tropes make it more important for human behavior than it is for any species!)
IF GRRM is being true to his old words and writing real literature, then the big questions focus on the constantly evolving “who” of a few characters, particularly Jon, Daeny, Tyrion, Arya & Bran. Jon’s parentage obviously is important: a big part of his character has been wondering who is mother is and why his father did as he did.
The other suggestions along these lines are just soap opera details. Yes, those things typify Fantasy tales: but hopefully GRRM is doing better than that.
Those are colloquial usages that have crept into standard vernacular. Language evolves, after all, and it is the job of dictionaries to keep up. After all, people use “irony” for “unpleasant coincidence”: but that is not what the word means.
From my point of view, the single biggest problem of using “theory” as a synonym of “hypothesis” or “conjecture” is that it leaves us without a word for “theory!” When someone wants to refer to “a general truth for modeling the universe,” it would be nice to have a single word that we do not confuse with “possible ideas stemming from a general truth” (= hypothesis) or “idea that I think might be true without any real support” (= half-assed conjecture). Indeed, it is irritating enough that we do not clearly distinguish between the last two concepts!
If so, then it will be at the very end. Again, standard literary theory is informative here: Arya is one of the primary protagonists creating the over-arching story. She needs to be there and be conflicted at the climax: and all of her evolution up to that point has to be important.
At this point, GRRM is down to 6 characters who have been protagonists from the start. Five of them (including Arya) are the ones around which he intended to write the over-arching story. He really cannot lose many more: the “new” protagonists (Jaime, Brienne, Cersei, etc.) cannot really create a Song of Ice and Fire story as we cannot read the evolution of their thoughts, etc., from the first book to the last.
At the very end I agree, as for Brienne being a new protagonist, eh.
Original 5 was : Arya,Tyrion, Danni, Jon and Bran, he realized the Starks dynamics was missing tension and he added Sansa and that filled out the main 6 ( who we see in book 1 are it), followed by Jamie,Cersei,Davos,Stannis,Theon , Samwell and finally Brienne.
At least one, maybe two of the main group may or will die and we all have are faves on them ( though to be honest I hope no more Starks), the follow up group will be more: Jamie,Cersei and if we use the TV show at all,Stannis ( double/ triple kin slaying is huge here ) are shoe ins, if for some reason Jamie lives I could see Brienne surviving.
Please GRRM, Christmas is upon us!!! :>)
grailking,
Well, Brienne was a protagonist in Crows: you cannot give 8 PoV chapters to a non-protagonist! That stated, those were pretty bad chapters, as GRRM did a pretty lousy job of making clear what her identity crisis was.
As for Stannis, well: he already is dead from some character’s PoV in the books. We do not need to go by the TV show for that!
Certainly “theory” can and does mean generic principles, but like many English words there are other definitions for “theory,” as well:
And so R + L = J is an idea that is presented as possibly true but not known or proven to be true. I see that fitting perfectly with this particular definition.
Edit: Mr Fixit has fixed it before me, it seems.
Ginevra,
It is still a bad corruption of the language to use the same word for diametrically opposed concepts: on one hand, an accepted truth, and on the other hand, a conjecture that need not have any basis at all!
No question about jojenpaste?
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